Jiwei.com reported that the aftermath of the “giant earthquake” within the industrial chain attributable to the scarcity of mature expertise manufacturing capability has not but settled, and the provision of superior expertise manufacturing capability will usher in a tense second.
According to provide chain information, TSMC issued a discover to clients a couple of days in the past, saying that the arrival of superior manufacturing tools has been delayed, and the rise in manufacturing capability within the subsequent yr might not be as anticipated. Although no particular course of is talked about,However, TSMC’s place implies that the manufacturing capability of 4nm and 3nm will are typically tight.
As the world’s largest and most superior foundry brother, TSMC’s assertion made it inevitable that the “tiger body” of the trade chain could be shocked.
Equipment in charge?
It could be seen from the TSMC discover that the crux of the issue is instantly on the tools.
The purpose for this can be interpreted from two dimensions.
On the one hand, the tools trade demand is booming. Under the affect of the sport of nice powers, application-driven, and absence of manufacturing capability, coupled with the rise within the return of producing industries and the strengthening of provide chain safety in varied semiconductor powerhouses, the worldwide foundry has ushered in waves of growth and new development. With so many corporations pouring into the chip manufacturing trade on the identical time, the tools and supplies required are undoubtedly large.
The so-called “the troops and horses are not moved, the food and grass go first”. The foundry course of is an especially complicated and systematic course of, and varied tools resembling lithography machines, etching machines, plasma implanters, CMP and photoresist supplies are indispensable. However, beneath the worldwide scarcity of manufacturing capability, it’s troublesome for tools to outlive alone. On the one hand, tools producers have to deal with the quickly increasing demand, and then again, they’re additionally tormented by the scarcity of kit components provide. Under the double “squeeze”, typically they will solely hope to “Single” sighed.
According to Aiji Weibo,At the start of this yr, semiconductor tools giants together with ASML, Applied Materials, and Fanlin have repeatedly publicly said that their manufacturing capability can not meet demand.As the idea for chip growth, the most important constraint on present tools manufacturing is the dearth of cores. And this seemingly unsolvable infinite loop will convey extra uncertainties to the semiconductor trade chain, which is deeply apprehensive about oversupply.
On the opposite hand, the superior expertise places ahead increased necessities on the tools. Zhu Jing, deputy secretary common of the Beijing Semiconductor Industry Association, talked about that after getting into 3nm, the structure has modified from FinFET to GAA, the transistor structure has modified, and new necessities have been positioned on associated tools and supplies, which signifies that high-end lithography machines and Other key tools faces re-development and manufacturing, which requires a cycle.
Especially for superior processes, essentially the most crucial tools is undoubtedly the lithography machine. Isaiah Research believes that the present tools bottleneck is ASML’s EUV tools. Because ASML EUV is among the most vital tools for superior manufacturing processes, and it’s completely equipped by ASML, the manufacturing capability of superior manufacturing processes can be affected by EUV tools. Availability restrictions. Therefore, the tempo of TSMC’s 3nm course of has certainly slowed down a bit, and the primary drawback is the scarcity of EUV tools.
In specific, the most recent era of excessive numerical aperture High-NA EUV lithography machines are extra conducive to 3nm and above processes. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have additionally tried their greatest to compete for the appropriate to talk within the subsequent era. Not solely has it continued to spend so much on capital expenditures, nevertheless it has additionally made frequent statements to realize a head begin. Intel beforehand introduced that it has grabbed the primary new-generation EUV lithography machine, and Intel additionally accounted for the majority of the primary 6 items; TSMC mentioned that it is going to be in 2024. The newest era of High-NA EUV lithography machine is adopted; Li Zaiyong, the vice chairman of Samsung Group and the precise controller of Samsung Group, not too long ago visited ASML in individual, which reveals its weight.
In addition, the variable elements within the technique of capability growth and new development must also be thought of comprehensively. Duan Dingfu, a senior advisor within the Taiwanese trade and president of Flagship International Management Consultants, believes that along with tools, different elements resembling lack of labor, lack of supplies, delays in transportation, and delays in approval must also be taken under consideration for brand spanking new manufacturing capability invested by overseas buyers.
Yield can be an vital a part of the foundry capability. According to Chen Xiang, a senior analyst at Jiwei Consulting, tools and course of expertise are essentially the most crucial elements for mass manufacturing, and each are indispensable. The challenges confronted by TSMC and Samsung on the 3nm node are tools issues on the one hand, and R&D yield then again. query.
4nm / 3nm in vortex?
Under the constraints of kit and different constraints, the manufacturing capability of superior expertise has additionally staged completely different plots.
According to Isaiah’s analysis, TSMC’s 4nm/5nm manufacturing capability will proceed to be briefly provide. For instance, chips from main 4nm clients resembling Apple, AMD, and Nvidia will improve in quantity within the second half of the yr, which can additional result in tight manufacturing capability.
As for 6nm/7nm, because of the massive downward revision of cell phone APs, and Apple and HPC clients are progressively shifting to the 5nm course of, the scarcity of provide and demand for 6nm/7nm can be comparatively balanced in 2023.
In distinction, 3nm is off to a foul begin. Duan Dingfu talked about that Samsung, which is predicted to mass-produce 3nm within the first half of the yr, has really delayed the method, and the issue of low yield has been reviewed by prime administration, and it’s anticipated that it’ll take a number of quarters to catch up within the technique of organizational transformation. On the opposite hand, TSMC reconfirmed within the current expertise discussion board that it’ll perform 3nm mass manufacturing as scheduled within the second half of 2022.
However, from the angle of the velocity of growth, it won’t be as clean as anticipated. According to Isaiah’s analysis and evaluation, the provision aspect is proscribed by tools provide, which impacts the capability provide, however the demand aspect additionally sees that the shopper’s manufacturing plan is comparatively inactive. In common, clients’ demand for TSMC’s 4nm/5nm capability remains to be bigger than that of 3nm, so there’s a likelihood that key tools will change to 4nm/5nm, which can decelerate the 3nm growth.
“Specifically, TSMC’s 3nm capacity supply and demand situation still needs to be observed by the two major customers Apple and Intel next year. As for Samsung’s 3nm, we have not yet seen a clear mass production plan for major customers, and Samsung’s 3nm is in the yield rate. There is still room for improvement, and customers may also wait and see.” Isaiah mentioned within the survey.
Although 3nm is seen to be “delayed”, it’s interpreted from one other dimension, which can make 3nm a protracted node after “forming”.
According to Zhu Jing’s evaluation, the yield price of 3nm nonetheless must be improved, which additionally reveals that ranging from 3nm, it is going to turn out to be increasingly troublesome to extend every node, and the R&D funding will even improve. A primary judgment that’s nearer to failure. This will even make 3nm a protracted node, as a result of the transfer to 2nm and 1nm will clearly be slower, so 3nm could set off an enormous demand for merchandise, inflicting the 3nm node to turn out to be a node with critical demand than provide. TSMC not too long ago spent $40 billion to construct 4 new 3nm fabs in Taiwan, which might confirm the judgment on the manufacturing capability of the 3nm node from the aspect.
Regarding the query of how lengthy the scarcity of manufacturing capability will final, Duan Dingfu mentioned that it is determined by how shortly Samsung and Intel can efficiently broaden the manufacturing capability of superior processes to make up for the manufacturing capability hole, which is conservatively estimated at the least one to 2 years.
The analysis institute BIS claims that because of the surge in market demand and the scarcity of semiconductor tools, the manufacturing capability of superior processes of 3nm and above will face challenges, and there could also be a spot of 10% and even 20% from 2024 to 2025.
Perhaps the scarcity of superior expertise manufacturing capability is already “on the way”.
What is the influence of the commercial chain?
The “foreshadowing” of the scarcity of manufacturing capability is simply across the nook.
The disaster of mature manufacturing capability scarcity has led to the scarcity of energy administration, show driver ICs, MOSFETs, MCUs, sensors and different associated chips and value will increase. The influence on many industries resembling cars and shopper electronics remains to be fermenting.
Therefore, Isaiah’s analysis is comparatively optimistic concerning the influence of superior course of manufacturing capability on the trade. The scarcity of superior course of manufacturing capability has restricted influence available on the market. Due to the decline in finish market demand, a number of key clients have lowered manufacturing charges. Due to the weak shopper electronics market, within the second half of this yr, MediaTek’s 6nm / 7nm chips in TSMC can be minimize by 20-30%, and Nvidia’s 5nm chips will even be minimize by about 10%. In addition, the tools of 3nm, 4nm / 5nm, 6nm and different course of nodes could be partially allotted in response to buyer wants, and the foundry has larger flexibility.
Referring to the response of the trade chain to the scarcity of superior course of capability, Duan Dingfu talked about that the primary influence of the scarcity of superior course of capability on the semiconductor trade is the decline in stock and value will increase. Common responses embody delaying terminal product shipments and decreasing terminal product specs, and so forth.
In this regard, Chen Xiang additionally identified that the scarcity of superior course of manufacturing capability will even trigger issues resembling the worth improve of corresponding chips and the provision scarcity. The schedule and proportion of stocking, in addition to looking for appropriate foundry cooperation to make sure provide.
In this course of, superior packaging can be a fulcrum that may be leveraged. As Duan Dingfu mentioned, mainland design producers cannot solely consider the usage of a number of foundries, but additionally contemplate switching to mature expertise designs, mixed with superior packaging resembling chiplets and heterogeneous integration.
Although 3nm appears to be far-off from the positioning of home design producers, Zhu Jing believes that the extra the method node strikes ahead, the challenges and dangers can be magnified for mainland design producers, as a result of the mainland at the moment lacks superior expertise beneath 7nm. Capability signifies that the extra superior expertise goes ahead, the weaker the trade’s proper to talk. In order to acquire superior expertise, extra prices can be paid, or the price of R&D and manufacturing of design producers will improve; or the manufacturing capability of superior expertise will proceed to be managed by others. .
“3nm is a long node. For mainland China, the best way is to find a way to solve and break through the problem of advanced process capacity as soon as possible. This is the most fundamental way.” Zhu Jing lastly urged.